Repeat, Rewrite, Return, Require, Revise
Richard David Pike's Beyond The Big Five Newsletter - Edition 16
Delight for Spain, now standing alone as record winners of the European Championship, despair for beaten finalists England, who will now endure 30 additional years of hurt on top of the three unsuccessful decades referenced in the famous 1996 song “Three Lions”. UEFA Euro 2024 is now concluded and officially with it the 2023/24 European football season. Famous names will no longer don their country’s national team colours such as Switzerland’s Xherdan Shaqiri and France’s Olivier Giroud. In the case of Germany and Real Madrid star Toni Kroos, colours of any club or country will never again be worn as a professional given his already announced playing retirement prior to Euro 2024.
Hidden away amongst the Euro 2024 semi-finals, the first qualifying round of the three UEFA club competitions flew under the radar and officially commenced the 2024/25 European club season. Football well and truly never sleeps and full attention now falls once again on the club game after eyeballs were glued to Germany for the Euros and the USA for the simultaneously shown Copa America 2024. As Europe’s elite jet set globally for lucrative pre-season tours, their places in the league phases of the European club competitions already secure, those less fortunate must survive the qualification rounds’ trials and tribulations. A talking point packed Qualification Round Two begins this midweek, here are the main stories to follow.
Take Two or Expected Service Resumed?
KI Klaksvik proved one of the fairytale stories from 2023/24 in the three UEFA club competitions. Upon drawing record Hungarian champions Ferencvarosi TC in the 2023/24 Champions League First Qualification Round, the 2022 Faroese champions looked to be heading for another routinely expected early qualification loss. Especially after Fradi escaped the away first leg with a 0-0 draw. However, a stunning 3-0 away victory in Budapest courtesy of a brace from Arni Frederiksberg and a solitary Aketchi Luc-Martin Kassi strike saw the Faroese underdogs progress to qualification round two. A result that shocked many a European observer and the Ferencvaros hierarchy, who fired then-coach Stantislav Cherchesov following the humiliation.
Not content with just one upset, KI turned their attention to fellow Nordic club in the shape of 2022 Swedish Allsvenskan champions BK Hacken in the Second Qualification Round. Looks once again proved deceiving when judging KI, who came away from their home first-leg tie with a 0-0 draw. Nonetheless, a dramatic 3-3 away draw in the return leg in Sweden set up a penalty shoot-out, which the Faroese side dramatically won 4-3. Norwegian Vegard Forren, once briefly of Southampton FC in the Premier League slotted home the decisive penalty to once again stun Europe.
Qualification Round Three saw KI take an advantage into the away second leg by virtue of winning their home first leg 2-1. Nonetheless, another Nordic side in Molde FK proved too strong in the second leg, winning the return 2-0 after extra time to progress to the Play-off Qualification Round 3-2 on aggregate. KI’s disappointment proved short-lived, given they had made history as the first-ever Faroese side to guarantee group stage football in a UEFA club competition. Said competition proved to be the Conference League following yet another narrow 3-2 aggregate loss in Europa League Play-Off round against Moldovan outfit Sheriff Tiraspol.
Paired together in a group with established European names such as France’s LOSC Lille and Slovakia’s Slovan Bratislava, knockout qualification always would prove difficult. KI had not finished defying the odds, however, procuring four points from their six games, a 0-0 draw at home vs Lille and a 3-0 victory in the Faroes against Slovenia’s Olimpija Ljubljana. All achieved with the club holding part-time semi-professional status, most of their squad as Faroese nationals holding day jobs alongside playing football.
Having secured Champions League football once again for 2024/25 courtesy of winning the 2023 Faroese Premier League, KI courtesy of a brace once again from Arni Frederiksberg triumphed over Luxembourg’s FC Differdange 03 in the First Qualification Round. Their reward is once again a tie against Swedish opposition in the Second Qualification Round, this time being historical powerhouse, Malmo FF, 2023 Allsvenskan champions. After the beaten 1978/79 European Cup narrowly prevailed in a memorable title race last season with Elfsborg, Malmo’s campaign looks more comfortable so far, as they lead the current 2024 standings by seven points. Crucially, the club still have 48 year-old innovative coach Henrik Rydstrom in their dugout after reported interest from Brighton & Hove Albion who eventually settled on St Pauli FC’s Fabian Huerzeler as a replacement for the departed Roberto de Zerbi.
With Malmo being one of the traditional powerhouses of Swedish football unlike Hacken, one feels the latest edition of Faroe Islands vs Sweden in Euro club competition will see the expected service of a Swedish victory rewritten. However, no-one at Eleda Stadium will underestimate KI Klaksvik, despite them losing Magne Hoseth, the coach who masterminded the heroics last season. Hoseth’s replacement in the Injector Arena dugout, Hakkon Lunov will seek a repeat performance in the Champions League qualifiers whilst claiming a significantly larger scalp than Hacken.
Guess Mou’s Back…….
Just over twenty years ago, a certain Jose Mourinho burst onto the coaching scene by leading FC Porto to the 2003/04 Champions League title against the odds. A triumph which kickstarted a coaching career yielding six domestic titles in England, Spain and Italy, a Champions League triumph with Inter Milan, a Conference League title with AS Roma and six domestic cup competitions in England, Spain and Italy. However, after his firing towards the end of last season at Roma and now aged 61, Mourinho finds his illustrious career at a crossroads. In an era of more clubs looking to devolve recruitment strategies away from managers and where there is a constant search for the latest upcoming young coaching talent, Mourinho risked being almost forgotten about despite his record of delivering trophies.
Perhaps this new aforementioned reality forced Mourinho to look further afield with his next managerial project, with Kadikoy district in Istanbul, Turkey being the new destination for The Special One, penning a contract at Fenerbahce until 2026. Despite not being the same manager as years gone by, Mourinho’s arrival still feels significant for Fener and Turkish football, with more eyes focused on the league owing to the status Mourinho still commands worldwide. Mourinho is no stranger to working under pressure to satisfy demanding owners, presidents and fanbases, as successful spells at Chelsea, Inter Milan and Real Madrid show. Nonetheless, pressure will be immediate in 2024/25, Fener accumulated 99 points in the 2023/24 Turkish Super Lig season, losing just one game all season under Mourinho’s predecessor Ismail Kartal, a total not enough to secure a title given fierce rivals Galatasaray collected 102 points.
Mourinho has seen a lot in his long managerial career, however, getting to grips with a league with foreign player limited per squad, albeit one more liberal than many others with similar policies will prove a new learning curve for The Special One. Nonetheless, despite the limitations, Fener’s hierarchy are helping Mourinho assemble his squad for the upcoming campaign, former Newcastle winger Allan Saint-Maximin has signed on in Kadikoy after just a solitary season with Al-Ahli in the Saudi Pro League. Striker should be a priority position for Mourinho given Michy Batshuayi’s controversial move cross-town to Galatasaray and speculation linking veteran forward Edin Dzeko with an exit. Reports state Sevilla’s Moroccan striker Youssef En-Nesyri is close to signing on at Sukru Saracoglu whilst there is continued links to AC Milan’s Serbian striker Luka Jovic.
Mourinho’s first competitive match in charge of Fenerbahce will be the first leg of their Champions League Second Qualifying Round against Swiss Super League runners-up FC Lugano. Sari Kanaryalar should be significant favourites as the tough task of negotiating through three qualifying rounds to make the new league phase of the Champions League begins. A scenario which the club’s hierarchy would prefer given the additional finance it would bring. However, failing to make the league phase of the Champions League and dropping into the league phase of the Europa League would give Fener a more realistic chance of a long European run. Trophies being Mourinho’s speciality and a Europa League campaign would allow a possible renewal of acquaintances with ex-employers Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United. Whatever happens in Kadikoy, Mou is back, expect his spell at Fener to be drama-filled with no shortage of controversy and talking points.
Familiar Absentees, Unfamiliar Responsibilities
Think of Scottish football in European club competition and attention instantly turns to Glaswegian dominant duo Celtic FC and Rangers FC. No other Scottish clubs have featured in either group of league stage phase of UEFA’s top tier club competition since its rebranding into the Champions League in 1992/93. Scotland’s UEFA co-efficient ranking is often so dependable on both clubs’ performance in European competition to a degree not seen in many other countries.
If additional domestic assistance comes Celtic and Rangers’ way with helping maintain Scotland’s coefficient, its most likely port of call is one or more of Aberdeen FC, Heart of Midlothian FC (Hearts) or Hibernian FC (Hibs). Despite the honours of the aforementioned above clubs trailing well behind the Old Firm duo, based on geography, population centres and supporter base, if a club in the future snaps Celtic & Rangers’ title dominance it is very likely to be one of these three. However, two of these “Next Three” clubs are not participating in European club competition for 2024/25. Aberdeen endured a challenging 2023/24, manager Barry Robson lost his job partway through the campaign and a brief spell under veteran English EFL promotion specialist Neil Warnock failed to revive The Dons’ in a disappointing 7th placed finish. Hibernian fared even worse, finishing 8th, themselves firing two managers mid-season as both Lee Johnson and Nick Montgomery were unable to arrest Hibees’ slide into mediocrity throughout 2023/24.
Scotland’s call for coefficient assistance outside of Celtic and Rangers, therefore extends its hand to two surprise and unfamiliar names in the shape of Kilmarnock FC and St Mirren. Kilmarnock’s fourth placed finish in the 2023/24 Scottish Premiership surprised many observers in only their second season back in the top flight of Scottish football after a season spent in the second tier Scottish Championship in 2021/22. Instantly unseeded as a result of embarking on only their second European campaign since 2001/02, Killie pulled Cercle Brugge in the Second Round of Europa League qualification.
A tie on paper amongst the nicer they could have landed on despite remaining underdogs for it and one admittedly still tough against a side who share ownership with Ligue 1’s AS Monaco. Killie’s main summer signing so far is 26 year-old goalkeeper Robby McCrorie, signed for an undisclosed fee from Rangers. McCrorie left his status as Jack Butland’s back-up at Ibrox to become Killie’s starting keeper in place of Will Daniels, who had a successful loan at Killie in 2023/24 from AFC Bournemouth.
St Mirren’s appearances in European competition have been even more scarce than Killie’s. The Buddies last participated in European competition in 1987/88, where in the now defunct Cup Winners Cup they lost to eventual winners KV Mechelen in the Second Round. Despite speculation linking him with other jobs, Saints have held onto manager Stephen Robinson over the summer, and despite losing key starter Keanu Bacchus to EFL League One’s Mansfield Town have boosted their squad for Europe. The main capture being experienced defender Shaun Rooney who returns to Scottish football on a free transfer from EFL League One’s Fleetwood Town after two seasons as a regular at the Lancashire outfit.
St Mirren do look to have landed on a nicer-looking tie than Kilmarnock, drawing 2023 Icelandic Besta Delid Karla runners-up Valur and will hope to progress through at least one round upon their return to continental competition. Hibernian failed to make the Conference League group stages last campaign after being unfortunate to draw Aston Villa in the Play Off Qualifying Round. Nonetheless, their victories over Inter Club D’Escaldes and FC Luzern in the previous two qualifying rounds ensured vital co-efficient points for Scotland. The underperformance of Hibs and Aberdeen have thrusted unfamiliar responsibilities onto the shoulders of both Killie and St Mirren in Europe this season. Group stage football of any description feels unlikely for both come the end of the qualifiers, chipping in with a few wins and coefficient points when possible therefore becomes order of the day as an objective.
Can capital clubs carry crucial coefficient points?
Across all three European club competition qualification rounds this coming week, many a club based in a European capital city is in action seeking qualification, prize money and crucially, co-efficient points for their countries. In some cases, these participant capital clubs are historical powerhouses in their footballing pyramid who have fallen on hard times in recent seasons. The most prominent example of this in the Second Qualification Round is the Austrian Bundesliga where new modern powerhouse Red Bull Salzburg have secured regular Champions League group stage football in recent seasons. Whereas, the country’s two most historically successful clubs Rapid & Austria Vienna, starved of success in recent seasons both embark earlier on their continental quests, needing to survive the many tribulations of the qualification rounds.
Rapid Vienna enter into the 2024/25 Europa League Second Qualification round on the back of a 4th placed finish in the 2023/24 Austrian Bundesliga and an agonising 2-1 loss in the 2023/24 Austrian Cup final to 2023/24 Austrian champions Sturm Graz. Three prominent players departed Allianz Stadion this summer, central defender Leopold Querfeld signed for Union Berlin, forward Fally Mayulu joined Bristol City, whilst Austrian national team winger Marco Grull departed for German Bundesliga outfit Werder Bremen on a Bosman free transfer. Bargain hunting has been order of the day at Rapid with incoming transfers this summer to replenish such departures.
Bendeguz Bolla featured for Hungary at Euro 2024 and arrives on a free transfer from Wolverhampton Wanderers after a successful loan at Grasshopper Zurich in 2023/24. 25 year-old central defender Serge-Phillipe Raux Yao also arrives on a free from French Ligue 2 surprise package Rodez AF, whilst Croatian centre forward Dion Beljo arrives from FC Augsburg on a season loan and a six figure transfer fee has been spent on RB Salzburg central midfielder Mamadou Sangare. On paper, Rapid look to have landed an ideal tie against Wisla Krakow, giants in Polish football but currently lingering in its second tier. However, Rapid are more aware than most of the damage a second tier club can do, given their infamous loss to Liechtenstein’s FC Vaduz, a Swiss second tier club back in the 2022/23 Conference League Play-Off Round.
Austria Vienna’s 2023/24 league season saw chaos at the start, missing the top six split with a 7th placed finish, inconsistency in the relegation round play-off with an 8th placed finish, yet redemption in the European play-off rounds beating both Wolfsburger AC and TSV Hartberg to secure 2024/25 Conference League football. Interestingly, their Second Qualifying Round opponents Tampeeren Ilves also finished 8th in the 2023 Finnish Veikkausliiga, yet qualified for the Conference League by virtue of winning the 2023 Finnish Cup. Austria Vienna will target progression given their draw, however, as their 2023/24 season shows, inconsistency tends to follow the 22 time Austrian champions around. Die Veilchen supporters will hope this chaos and inconsistency subsides for two matches against Ilves.
In almost a parallel situation to the capital clubs in Austrian football enduring a decline against a new established domestic force, Bulgarian football is also experiencing a similar phenomenon. Traditional powerhouses CSKA Sofia and Levski Sofia, with 31 and 26 domestic titles respectively have both failed to win a league title since the late 2000s. Both have been usurped by Ludogorets Razgrad, current holders of the longest domestic title winning streak in European football having won the last thirteen Bulgarian First League championships. Worryingly for both capital clubs, 2023/24 saw both fail to qualify for any European club competition, highlighting the already sizeable gap to Ludogorets is not narrowing.
Despite the failure of both Sofia giants, the Bulgarian capital city does have representation in UEFA club competition in 2024/25. FC CSKA 1948, founded in 2016 as a protest club by CSKA Sofia fans against the club’s takeover by Grisha Ganchev stunned CSKA Sofia themselves 2-0 in a Conference League play-off. CSKA 1948’s qualification mirroring the aforementioned Austria Vienna after missing a top six Championship Round split yet prevailing in a playoff after finishing top of a Conference League qualification championship round. CSKA 1948 have a winnable looking tie against Montenegrin outfit Buducnost Podgorica, however, go into the tie without promising 19 year-old centre back Rosen Bozhinov who completed a transfer to Belgian Pro League side Royal Antwerp over the summer.
The First Qualification Round of UEFA club competition proved a mixed bag for League of Ireland sides, Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne picking up narrow victories against Iceland’s Vikingur FC and Gibraltar’s St Joseph’s FC respectively. Derry City on the other hand suffered a shock loss and missed co-efficient point chance against fellow Gibraltarian outfit Bruno’s Magpies FC. Dublin-based St Pat’s Athletic kick off their European campaign this week against Swiss second tier side FC Vaduz, who qualified for Europe via their usual route of being Liechtenstein cup winners. League of Ireland fan David Judge described St Pat’s 2024 season as disappointing, however, there is slow improvement under former Republic of Ireland coach Stephen Kenny. Judge states the Inchicore-based side can give European football their full focus as no chance to qualify for Europe via the league earmarking West Ham loanee goalkeeper Joseph Anang and 16 year-old wonderkid striker Mason Melia as two players to watch.
Enter Netherlands and Portugal
The most commonly ranked 6th and 7th leagues in UEFA’s coefficient, Netherlands and Portugal occupy an intriguing middle ground in the European football sphere. Their clubs in the modern era still remain competitive in European club competitions but it remains a herculean task for them to have supremely long runs in European club competition. A task often depending on a fortuitous draw or an exceptional batch of talent coming together all at once before it gets picked apart by the elite such as Ajax’s 2018/19 vintage under Erik Ten Hag.
Of the four entries from the two countries to enter in the Second Qualifying Round, it is the Europa League participants who are better known in the shape of AFC Ajax and SC Braga but the Conference League entrants who provide a greater level of intrigue. Portugal’s Vitoria SC, hailing from the northern city of Guimaraes are well known in European footballing circles, 2024/25 being the 24th time they have participated in UEFA club competition. Conversely, Dutch Eredivisie Conference League participants Go Ahead Eagles are only playing in UEFA club competition for the 6th time (three such participations being in the invite-only now defunct Intertoto Cup). In their first UEFA competition qualification since 2015/16 when losing 5-2 over two legs to Hungary’s Ferencvaros, the Deventer outfit will take on Norway’s SK Brann.
Dutch Eredivisie specialist Michael Statham from Football Oranje highlighted to me Go Ahead Eagles’ status as a “nice to watch mid-table Eredivise team who play pleasing-on-the-eye football” when consulted on this surprise European qualifier. Statham attributed the success of the De Adelaarshorst outfit to coach Rene Hake, troublingly for Go Ahead Eagles, however, he left in the summer to join Manchester United as Erik Ten Hag’s assistant. Paul Simonis, former assistant to Hake’s predecessor at the club Kees van Wonderen has significant shoes to fill in the dugout, just as concerning though is turnover in the shape of three key player departures.
Left fullback Bas Kuipers and central midfielder Philippe Rommens departed for FC Twente and Ferencvaros respectively. However, the sale of star attacking midfielder Willum Thor Willumsson to EFL League One’s Birmingham City highlights both Blues’ ambitions & wealth alongside the struggle modest sized Eredivisie clubs like Go Ahead Eagles face when trying to hold onto talent. Statham outlined Go Ahead Eagles’ focus on youth with their summer recruitment. All three of their major signings so far in attacking midfielder Mathias Suray, defensive midfielder Calvin Twigt and central defender Julian Dirksen are aged 22 or under. More signings are expected according to Statham with a reported windfall of around EUR 6 million from the aforementioned sales assisting with the squad refresh.
Despite further reinforcements likely in the pipeline, expectations at the club are reportedly modest. Statham believes that Go Ahead Eagles supporters would take a mid-table finish citing the loss of key players and a talented coach. Statham also remained cautious on Kowet’s European chances, citing the different calendar seasons both sides play, with opponents Brann already half-way through their domestic season and well up to speed with competitive games. Nonetheless, Statham also pointed out Go Ahead Eagles specialising in tight games last season, perfect examples of such being both Conference League play-off ties vs NEC Nijmegen and FC Utrecht, both 2-1 away victories which brought European football to Deventer for 2024/25.
As a result of recently surpassing Portugal for 6th place in the UEFA rankings, more modest-sized Dutch clubs such as Go Ahead Eagles who now feel the benefits of European qualification are under pressure to deliver better results than their similar-sized Portuguese counterparts. Outside of Portugal’s traditional Big Three clubs and SC Braga, the recently established fourth club power in the country, Portuguese clubs struggled to make any impact in the last few seasons in the Conference League. FC Arouca and Vitoria SC both failed to progress through a qualifying round in the Conference League in 2023/24. In a unique twist of fate, Arouca actually lost to Go Ahead Eagles’ very opponent Brann in the Third Qualifying Round, the Deventer side will therefore be keen for a revised scenario which sees the Norwegians eliminated.
Vitoria SC, whose loss to modest Slovene outfit NK Celje in the Second Qualifying Round last season stunned many in Portuguese footballing circles once again find themselves pitched into this qualification stage of the same competition. Their opponents this time are 2023/24 Maltese Premier League runners-up Floriana FC, who sealed this tie thanks to a 4-2 aggregate victory over San Marino’s SC Tre Penne in the First Qualifying Round. Portugal’s target to jump the Netherlands for 6th once more in the UEFA coefficient and reclaim a 6th team in UEFA club competition can have a strong start with a convincing victory over Floriana.