Mandatory Maintenance in a Changing Competition

Richard David Pike's Beyond The Big Five Newsletter - Issue 15

Thirty years have passed since the famous UK number one single “Everything Changes” blurted out of radios and discotheques across the nation. A song title very apt for changes that will befall European club competitions whilst eyeballs are glued to UEFA Euro 2024 in Germany. Reform rides towards us, everything will change, “Take That” actions if you will to competition structures so familiar across multiple generations.

From 2024/25 onwards, rather than the familiar 32 teams divided into eight groups of four teams group stage for the Champions, Europa and Conference League competitions, a Swiss-System 36 team “league” format will be used instead. A pre-knockout stage that encompasses eight matches for clubs in both Champions League and Europa League. Debates about ease/difficulty of club fixture lists, byes & extra seeding for high-ranked sides and extra play-off rounds for those with lower-rankings will intensify amongst club supporters. However, as the Euro club competition car arrives in UEFA’s Nyon House of Football garage for a full restoration with these new components, mandatory maintenance rather than a complete rebuild is order of the day for one specific part.

Preservation of Purpose

It was no exaggeration to say scepticism filled UK sports media platforms when discussing the UEFA Conference League’s launch in 2021/22. Widespread desires to exit the competition early from many of a Tottenham Hotspur persuasion, English football’s first-ever Conference League participant, filled the airwaves. Such criticism had substantially dampened just under two years later, however, by the time the final whistle blew in Prague at the end of the 2023 final. Jarrod Bowen’s 90th minute winning goal for West Ham United ended The Hammers’ 43 year wait for a cup competition triumph.

As the long-awaited trophy in the East London outfit’s trophy cabinet finally appeared prompting different English assessments of the Conference League, talk may intensify around allowing more English participation in UEFA club competitions. The combined strength of England’s top tier owing to its financial wealth and recent examples of clubs the size of Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea FC all missing European qualification could form the basis for this expansion. Awarding an extra Champions League spot to the top two ranked associations with the highest coefficient at the end of a club season no doubt acts as an further argument to potentially allow eight, nine or even ten English clubs to enter European competitions each season. Of this hypothetically argued expansion, two or three English clubs would enter the Conference League as opposed to the one spot currently allocated to the league by UEFA.

Amidst the excitement this theoretical tournament & participation expansion for English clubs would generate, one must stop, pause and look back to September 2015 when ideas for a third UEFA club competition were first mooted. Speaking about these third competition proposals at a UEFA members meeting back on that date, Volodymyr Geninson, then executive director at the Football Federation of Ukraine stated “It will give more opportunity to the clubs who never get in the final stages to participate in Europe.” The launch of a specifically formulated third club competition for these clubs who hail from UEFA’s lower to mid-ranked league according to Geninson would “give opportunities not to finish European competitions in August. It will give them opportunity to play in September and October”.

Geninson’s above forecast has been proven correct in resounding style since the Conference League’s implementation in 2021/22. In just three years, 9 different UEFA associations (Armenia, Kosovo, Estonia, Gibraltar, Lithuania, Liechtenstein, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Iceland and Faroe Islands all qualified clubs to the Conference League group stage for the first-ever time. Prioritisation of extra slots in the new UEFA competition for leagues mainly outside Europe’s Big Five coupled with retaining features such as a Champions and Non-Champions qualification pathway has facilitated a welcome increased diversity in its group stage. Roma & West Ham fans, players and management correctly celebrated success in the competition in its last two seasons with memories that will last a lifetime. However, the variation of different countries in the competition remains its great strength. Its purpose as a competition predominantly for mid-to-lower ranked UEFA leagues must be retained, calls to include more representatives from Big Five leagues in it must be resisted.

Dangerous precedents to avoid

Increasing the current spots in UEFA’s third tier club competition for representatives from Europe’s Big Five leagues from its current allocation of one to two or three will be argued as a strengthening of the competition’s quality by those who support it. However, one can argue the same on the allocation of FIFA World Cup qualification spots for all the tournaments between 1998 and 2022 which have featured 32 teams. Neither Colombia, who impressed at the 2014 and 2018 World Cups, reaching the knockout stages of both or Italy, four time World Champions, qualified for Qatar 2022. Teams who qualified for the last World Cup can be argued as inferior quality-wise to both, yet it is a nonsensical argument to give Europe and South America even more spots in a worldwide competition with four other continents represented. Rarely did you get the best quality 32 national teams at the specific time of a World Cup finals when that number of teams were allocated to compete. It was a unique quirk one accepted to accelerate development of the sport worldwide.

Excluding the quality strengthening argument, the next debating point those who may favour more “Big Five” Conference League representation may highlight is increased viewer interest should more “big” or “well-known” clubs be allowed entry. English football incorrectly felt this necessary in 2016/17 with the introduction of Premier League Under 21 academy sides into the EFL Trophy, a competition only previously entered by EFL League One and League Two clubs. Chances to visit Premier League stadiums and catch early glances at stars of the future were highlighted as rationale for these reforms to a famous competition. These reforms have widely been seen as a failure, already low EFL Trophy attendances in early rounds prior to the introduction of Premier League Under 21 sides have plummeted even further. Initiatives such as “B Team Boycott” encouraging fans to protest the introduction of said “B Teams” from Premier League clubs have proven successful with many fans still continuing to stay away from said games eight seasons on.

No matter what level it is played at, football can provide great, good, merely decent or poor quality matches to those who watch a game. A Premier League match between teams packed with international players may serve up a dull 0-0 draw whilst a non-league match between two sides with semi-professional players may thrill you with a 5-4 score-line. The Conference League may not feature many sides from the elite leagues, but it has still produced many talking points, storylines and engaging matches. Much in the same way the EFL’s three divisions and the fifth tier National League thrill many on a weekly basis in front of larger attendances than other lower tiers worldwide, highlighting the impressive depth of England’s footballing pyramid.

One final argument in favour of more “Big Five” league representation in the Conference League to dispel is more European qualification spots for these leagues would increase access to European club competition for ever-more clubs. After all, the allocations of the lower-to-middle ranked leagues need not be reduced to facilitate the entry of more Big Five league participants. Simply add an extra qualification round to accommodate these increases.

Qualification for European club competition is prestigious for clubs, high-performance metrics such as a high-league placing or cup competition victory ensures this prestige is maintained. Permitting 10/11 out of 20 Premier League, Serie A or La Liga clubs to qualify for European competition unacceptably cheapens such a prestigious achievement. The upper echelons of top flight domestic leagues which yield UEFA club competitions qualification are much tougher than yesteryear to break into for upstart clubs or returning fallen giants. Nonetheless, not impossible, as Aston Villa, Bologna, Brest, Girona and Stuttgart all sealed qualification to next season’s UEFA Champions League with top four domestic finishes. No additional comfort blanket domestic qualification spots necessary for well-coached and run clubs. Furthermore, even just one extra qualification round to add onto the Conference League adds even more complications with scheduling arrangements in an already crowded club calendar.

The current composition works, with a nod to the past

Despite my opposition to more sides from the Big Five leagues being allowed into the Conference League, I don’t oppose their participation in the competition, a view some lovers of mid-to-lower ranked European football argue in favour of. Every member of UEFA, whether they be England or Estonia, Spain or San Marino should be allowed to enter at least one representative into all its competitions. The current Conference League entrant composition per country (one for associations ranked 1-5, two for associations ranked 6-16 & 51-55 and three for associations ranked 17-49) with the special case of Liechtenstein entering just one club is proportionate taking into account the very purpose of the competition’s birth.

Last weekend marks the 25th anniversary of the final game in UEFA’s original 3rd club competition, the 1999 UEFA Cup Winners Cup final won by SS Lazio against RCD Mallorca at Villa Park, Birmingham. As alluded to in the excellent book “A Tournament Frozen in Time”, feats both random and unique engulfed the now-defunct tournament throughout its existence. Such examples include no club ever retaining the Cup Winners Cup (CWC) and European football royalty Liverpool and Real Madrid with 20 European Cups/Champions League titles between them having a grand total of zero CWC wins. As the name suggests, qualification required a domestic cup victory or qualifying for the following year’s edition as the current holders. Held in an era predominantly with only league champions allowed to participate, the CWC saw mainly one club per country entered with two clubs sometimes possible depending on the current competition holder status.

The Conference League may not possess the similar level of randomness as the CWC nor directly featuring only one club per country present in the old competition. However, of UEFA’s three current club competitions in 2023/24, it mirrors the CWC one club per country participation the closest with 26 different nations being represented amongst the 32 group stage participants. Compare this to 21 different nations being represented in the Europa League group stage and only 15 different nations being present in the Champions League group stage. Amongst the 24 Knockout Round play-offs and Round of Sixteen participant clubs in this season’s Conference League, 19 different nationalities were represented. A healthy figure compared to 13 different nationalities in the Europa League and just 8 different nationalities in the Champions League at the same competition stages.

It’s correct to assert the Conference League at just three years old has a long way to go in developing a batch of unique facts to rival 39 years of CWC memories. Nonetheless, in its infancy, some unique hard-to-believe statistics already exist. Liechtenstein with only one European competition entrant each season and ranked 50th in the UEFA Coefficient at the start of 2023/24 have qualified as many clubs to the competition’s group stage as 3rd ranked Spain. Both Spain and Germany have yet to win a Conference League knockout round match, trailing Moldova, Poland, Cyprus and Croatia in this particular metric. Portugal has never qualified a team for the Conference League group stages despite six attempts and being the 6th ranked UEFA league according to the co-efficient.

Putting more Big Five league sides into the Conference League (specifically its qualification rounds as no sides get automatic group/league stage entry) risks damaging a lot of the nice progress the competition has made since its inception. With more well-budgeted Big Five league sides to negotiate their way around, the number of different Conference League participants in the league phase will inevitably drop. If the competition’s 36 team league phase which kicks in next season is represented by only 15 or 16 different nations with three clubs each from 4 or 5 nations in it, there are then no distinct differences to the Europa League. The desire to split said competition’s then awkward 48 team, 12 groups of four group stage being one of the rationale around creating a third tier European club competition.

One club being allowed to enter the Conference League from each of the Big Five leagues is a perfectly balanced compromise. Access and interest from the football media markets in nations such as England predominantly but also Italy, Germany, Spain and France are considerations UEFA cannot nor should not ignore. However, this composition of entrants must not be tampered with. As outlined above, the Conference League has unique selling points that both Champions League and Europa League do not possess. Two of the last three Champions League Quarter Final line-ups have seen just four countries represented, all three of the Conference League’s Quarter Final line-ups so far have seen seven different countries represented.

Older viewers of the European club competition circuit commonly call for the reintroduction of the Cup Winners Cup. A understandable and ideally romantic act, yet one which is a no-goer with more than one representative per country in the Champions League. A feature in place since 1997/98, one which created a crazy situation as two beaten Dutch Cup semi-finalists had a “losers play-off” between each other to determine the Netherlands’ final CWC participant for 1998/99. The influence of the top European clubs alongside irreversible financial considerations permanently consigning the CWC to the history books. A competition whose random nature and unique statistics provoke an unmatched curiosity amongst football historians.

The Conference League cannot match the CWC for these traits, but it is the competition in UEFA’s current portfolio that provokes the closest nod to such a past. Using music as a reference point again like earlier in the piece, when reviewing Daft Punk’s 2013 album Random Access Memories, American music publication website Pitchfork stated it was to “luxuriate in the sounds, styles and production techniques of the 1970’s and early 1980’s”. The first three Conference League editions have seen mid-ranked UEFA leagues such as Greece and Belgium qualify teams for a UEFA club competition semi-final. Luxuriating memories of similar performances by AEK Athens and Club Brugge in the 1976/77 UEFA Cup and 1977/78 European Cup respectively.

Will Strong Justification morph into Full Justification?

FC Vaduz’s shocking Konyaspor and Rapid Vienna in qualification en-route to the 2022/23 group stages. AZ Alkmaar reaching the semi-finals in the same campaign, famously eliminating SS Lazio in the Round of Sixteen. AZ themselves being one of Bodo/Glimt’s victims en route to the Quarter Finals in 2021/22, a run which included victory over Celtic and a famous 6-1 group stage win over Jose Mourinho’s AS Roma. FC Basel coming within minutes of a semi-final penalty shoot-out against AC Fiorentina, which would have given them a chance at becoming the first-ever Swiss club to reach at European club competition final.

Arne Slot’s emergence guiding Feyenoord to the inaugural final, where despite narrowly missing out against AS Roma, using the experience as a springboard to the 2022/23 Eredivisie title and from 2024/25, being Jurgen Klopp’s successor at Liverpool. West Ham United ending their long trophy drought by triumphing in last season’s final. Aston Villa and Lille’s memorable Quarter Final in 2023/24 being capped off by a Villains victory in the penalty shootout with their goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez very much centre of attention. Finally, Olympiacos then overcoming the Birmingham outfit 6-2 on aggregate in the semi-finals to become only the second Greek club to reach a European club competition final. Just some of the delightful fare served up by the Conference League so far, highlight the strong justification for its foundation.

However, just one remaining act is needed to transform this current strong justification into full justification, achievable with an Olympiacos victory in the final next midweek against last season’s beaten finalists Fiorentina in Athens. The goal of more accessibility to UEFA competitions’ group stages and knockout rounds for middle-to-lower ranked league sides now achieved, UEFA when setting up the Conference League would also have desired these sides winning the new competition. A point correctly identified by Rory Smith, chief football correspondent for the New York Times when doing punditry work for TNT Sports in the aftermath of Olympiacos semi-final victory.

Conference League participation numbers may favour the mid-to-lower ranked UEFA leagues. Despite this, Big Five league participants still remain favoured to win the new competition as a result of exposure to higher-quality domestic opponents weekly and considerably larger financial resources. Feyenoord in 2021/22 overcame a considerably-higher budgeted Marseille side by a 3-2 aggregate score in their semi-final but not before a herculean defensive effort in the goal-less 2nd leg. Both FC Basel & Club Brugge when facing Fiorentina in last season and this season’s Semi-Final respectively struggled at times during their second-legs to contain Vincenzo Italiano’s outfit. Both times La Viola had just too much for their plucky opponents, progressing to both finals by one-goal margins of victory.

Looking ahead to the final, Fiorentina are correctly assigned as narrow pre-final favourites. In spite of this, Olympiacos go into the contest buoyed by three factors. Firstly, their surprise victory against Aston Villa in the semi-finals will give confidence they can upset the odds once more in the final. Secondly, in Jose Luis Mendillibar, they possess a coach with know-how in a European competition final, having triumphed in last season’s Europa League final with Sevilla FC. Finally, this final is essentially a home match for Olympiacos, who hail from the port city of Piraeus, just 20 minutes on public transport from the final’s Athenian venue.

A victory for Olympiacos would unveil several unique statistics for the history books. Greece would have its first European club competition triumph, surpassing Panathinaikos losing 2-0 to AFC Ajax in the 1970/71 European Cup final, the best achievement by a Greek club so far in Europe. It would also then leave Denmark as the only UEFA nation whose national team has won a European Championship title yet whose club sides have never won a UEFA club competition. It would be the first victory by a club from a non-Big Five league since FC Porto triumphed in the all-Portuguese 2010/11 Europa League final against SC Braga. If one excludes Portugal and Netherlands alongside the Big Five, this winless run in finals for other countries stretches back to 2009 when Ukrainian outfit Shakhtar Donetsk defeated Werder Bremen in the last UEFA Cup final before its Europa League rebranding.

European club competitions are set for big changes, the Conference League isn’t excluded from said irreversible change despite it only having six matches in the new “league” format as opposed to eight in the other two UEFA club competitions. Yet, in this era of seemingly never-ending change and competition homogenisation, the Conference League provides some needed positive variety in European club football. Key to these positive differences compared to the Champions and Europa League has been its composition of entrant teams per country. Mandatory maintenance of this existing entrant composition should be the Conference League’s permanent non-negotiable component for future seasons and generations.