Golden Opportunities and Intrigue aplenty
Richard David Pike's Beyond The Big Five Newsletter
An open door to Champions League riches for a low ranked representative
Speculation over which underdog(s) side can upset the applecart and qualify for the group/league phase of the Champions League remains a continuous talking point each season. Having negotiated several tough qualification rounds just to participate in the group/league stage, many a low-ranked association’s representatives often find the step up difficult to acclimatise to, having already climbed their Everest. The qualification prize money and opportunity for said clubs’ supporters to see their side play a European giant often more than adequate compensation. Nonetheless, surprise qualifiers on occasion can continue to defy odds, the most notable being APOEL Nicosia’s 2011/12 vintage, who reached that season’s Champions League Quarter Finals, seeing off FC Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk and Olympique Lyonnais en route.
After Monday’s Champions League playoff round draw, a tremendous & lucrative opportunity exists for four clubs, who at the start of the new club season in July saw themselves struggling to rub shoulders with Europe’s elite clubs. One of Hungary’s Ferencvarosi TC, Azerbaijan’s Qarabag FK, Bulgaria’s FC Ludogorets Razgrad or North Macedonia’s KF Shkendija will be playing league phase football in the Champions League in 2025/26. Respectively, these teams’ national league competitions are ranked 23rd, 28th, 30th and 51st out of 55 national top flight leagues in UEFA’s coefficient. In the third qualification round Ferencvaros face off against Ludogorets, whereby Qarabag take on Shkendija, the winners of these two ties facing off in the playoff round for a place dining at European football’s top club table.
Hungary’s most successful club Ferencvaros were their country’s first representatives to make the Champions League group stage in 1995/96, finishing 3rd out of 4 in a group with Real Madrid, eventual winners Ajax and Grasshopper Club Zurich. In addition, they are the only Hungarian club to win a European club competition, the 1964/65 Inter Cities Fairs Cup, only one of two Hungarian sides to qualify for a Champions League group stage and the only Hungarian sides to play in multiple group stages of UEFA’s premier club competitions. Fradi, under the management of former Coventry City, Leeds United, Tottenham Hotspur and Republic of Ireland great Robbie Keane are now seeking a first qualification for the Champions League’s new league stage format, first pioneered last season.
Familar faces exist in Ferencvaros’ squad to English football follower, ex-Bristol City & Cardiff City left-sided player Callum O’Dowda, is a summer signing from the Bluebirds following their relegation to EFL League One. In addition, Guinean central midfielder Naby Keita spent five seasons at Liverpool between 2018 and 2023 and is currently on loan at the Budapest outfit until December 2025 from Werder Bremen. One Fradi player not currently well-known yet to international audiences worth tracking is 19 year old central midfielder Alex Toth, a home-grown Ferencvaros academy product. Already capped by Hungary’s senior national team, Toth is profiled as similar to Newcastle’s deep roaming midfield playmaker Sandro Tonali by Football Talent Scout Jacek Kulig. According to a CIES Football Observatory study, Toth ranked top of a list of under-20 year old players in Europe’s non-big five leagues for chance creation/provision in 2024/25.
Qarabag are the only Azeri club to participate in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League, their historic qualification coming in 2017/18 after seeing off Samtredia, Sheriff Tiraspol and FC Copenhagen in qualification. In 2023/24, Atiliar continued to make history for their nation in UEFA club competition, their qualifying playoff win vs Portugal’s SC Braga making them the first Azeri side to reach the Round of Sixteen in UEFA club competition. After a disappointing 2024/25 season in UEFA club competition, when they finished bottom of a 36 team league phase of the Europa League, Qarabag will hope to rebound and secure a second Champions League group/league phase participation.
Ludogorets hold the distinctive record of winning every-single Bulgarian top division championship they have participated in (14). This title-winning streak is the longest currently active in European football championships. Should a fifteenth straight title be procured upon conclusion of the current campaign, it will set a new overall European record outright. Since the inception of the Champions League group stages in 1992/93, Ludogorets are only one of two Bulgarian sides to participate in a group/league phase, the last time this happened was 2016/17, where they came third in a group containing FC Basel, Arsenal FC and Paris St Germain. With Bulgaria’s other representatives in UEFA club competition unlikely to reach the league phase of any competition, pressure will be on the Eagles to boost the nations coefficient.
Most underdog story of all, however, is that of Shkendija, hailing from the small city of Tetovo in North Macedonia’s Polog region, located in the country’s North-West corner. First established in 1979, the club disbanded just a few years later and remained inactive until North Macedonia’s independence in 1992. Ballistet spent the first two decades of the club’s reformation bouncing between North Macedonia’s top and second tiers. Firmly established and a permanent presence in North Macedonia’s top tier 1 MFL competition since 2010/11, a turning point in their fortunes came just before the 2013/14 season.
In August 2013, multi-national company Ecolog International, specialising in Supply Chain Management, Engineering & Construction and both Environmental & Healthcare Services purchased the club. Ecolog’s corporate headquarters are located in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, however, the firm maintains an office in Shkendija’s Tetovo hometown. The club’s supporters reportedly ran a strong social media campaign which eventually persuaded father/son duo Lazim & Nazif Destani, the company’s founders to invest in the club.
Since Ecolog’s takeover, Shkendija’s financial difficulties have cleared, the club becoming a force in North Macedonian football. Four of their five 1 MFL championships have been won in Ecolog’s ownership, in addition, results in Europe have also improved. Prior to this season, Ballistet had reached the final play-off Europa League qualification round, coming just one victory short of group/league stage football. However, the glass ceiling has been burst this campaign, after seeing off Welsh champions The New Saints in Champions League qualification round one, Shkendija then shocked 1986 European champions FCSB (Steaua Bucharest) by a 3-1 aggregate score in the second qualifying round. This victory, regardless of future Champions League qualifying round results, guarantees Shkendija at minimum league phase football in the third tier Conference League.
Should a further positive result occur for Shkendija against Qarabag, records for North Macedonian clubs in UEFA club could tumble. It would represent the best performance for a club from that nation, three times in the past North Macedonian clubs have reached this stage of Champions League qualifying. Shkendija themselves in 2018/19 before losing to Salzburg, FK Rabotnicki who lost to French club Lille in 2006/07 and FK Vardar who lost to Sparta Prague in 2002/03. Assuming Shkendija pull off two shock results against firstly Qarabag and the winners of Ferencvaros/Ludogorets, they would become the first North Macedonian club to reach the group/league phase of the Champions League. Furthermore, with a UEFA coefficient ranking of 51, North Macedonia would be the lowest ranked nation to qualify a team for the Champions League group/league stage.
Scotland’s tough coefficient gig
As profiled in Beyond The Big Five’s last newsletter, Rangers survived a tough first examination in a competitive game under new manager Russell Martin. For the other Scottish representatives in UEFA’s club competitions, results proved a mixed bag. Dundee United proved too strong for Luxembourg’s UNA Strassen in the Conference League second qualifying round, progressing 2-0 on aggregate after 1-0 victories in both ties. Whereas for Hibernian, a battling performance over two legs in the Europa League second qualifying round sadly couldn’t inspire an upset against Denmark’s FC Midtjylland, losing 3-2 on aggregate after extra time in the second leg at Hibs’ Easter Road home. A result which drops them into the third tier Conference League third qualifying round.
Both now face challenging but potentially passable examinations in qualification round three. Dundee United face off against record Austrian champions Rapid Vienna. Whereas Hibernian have a challenging assignment against former European finalists Partizan Belgrade. Hibs’ late agonising loss against Midtjylland after being minutes away from a penalty shootout stinging hard given an on-paper easier task against Norway’s Fredrikstad would have awaited them in third round Europa League qualifying had they prevailed.
Despite the Hibees’ trepidation, Partizan do enter into this tie currently enduring the second longest title drought in their history (surpassed only by the 12 year drought between 1949 and 1961). The last three Serbian SuperLiga titles won by rivals Red Star have seen huge 20, 18 and 23 point margins of victory over Partizan respectively. Since exiting the 2021/22 Conference League round of sixteen against eventual finalists Feyenoord, Crno-Beli have failed to even qualify for the group/league phase of UEFA competitions. Finally, Partizan have turned to youth, eight of their starting eleven in their second leg starting eleven in the previous round against Ukraine’s Oleksandriya being aged 21 or under. A decision which looks to have been enforced on the club due to a poor financial position, Partizan reportedly owing the Serbian state EUR 22 million in taxes late last year.
All the above could point to Hibernian’s task potentially being slightly easier on paper than the assignment against Midtjylland despite the Serbian giants having a considerably larger historic reputation in European football. The Edinburgh outfit will be buoyed by news from Monday’s draw for the final qualifying round of UEFA competition qualifiers. A winnable final qualification tie could await them against the losers of the Europa League third qualification round tie between Cyprus’s AEK Larnaca and Poland’s Legia Warsaw. Hibs’ domestic season now underway in the Scottish Premiership with an opening 2-1 away win over Dundee FC, David Gray and his players’ midweek task is to return from the first leg away in Serbia still in the tie.
Here, there and elsewhere
After comfortably dispatching Sheriff Tiraspol in the previous qualifying round, FC Utrecht face potentially another tricky assignment in the Europa League third qualifying round against Swiss outfit Servette FC. The Geneva outfit lost in the Champions League second qualifying round to Viktoria Plzen, thus dropping into the second tier competition. A high stakes tie, the winners have a potential easier final qualification round match against the victors of fellow Europa League third qualifying round tie between Bosnia’s Zrinjski Mostar or Iceland’s Breidablik. For the losers, however, comes a tricky assignment in the Conference League play-off round against the losers of fellow Europa League third qualifying round tie between Panathinaikos or Shakhtar Donetsk. An illustration of the cut-throat nature of qualifying for UEFA club competition.
Finally, in the Conference League third qualifying round, the tie between Norway’s Viking FK and Turkey’s Istanbul Basaksehir piques interest. The Norwegians were heavy victors in qualifying round two, triumphing 12-3 on aggregate against Slovenia’s Koper. Basaksehir, should provide a significant step up in opposition, all being played out amid a fierce domestic title race in Norway. Viking have led the Norwegian Eliteserien standings since Matchday 8, however, as the final ten rounds approach in Norway, defending champions Bodo/Glimt are eating into the Stavanger outfit’s lead. Pressure on Viking being amplified further by two recent losses to Bodo/Glimt themselves and Brann. One trump card Viking possess for the visit of Istanbul Basaksehir is they are well into the competitive groove, being at the 2/3rds point of their domestic season. The Turkish outfit, on the other hand only start their domestic season this weekend against Fatih Karagumruk.